Straight Talk | Pakistan’s Moment of Reckoning: Why This Could Be India’s 1971 Redux
With the world more sympathetic to India's fight against terror, and with Pakistan weaker than ever, the window for decisive action is open
PM MODI HAS THE CHANCE TO BREAK PAKISTAN’S SPINE
In 1971, India broke Pakistan into two. A beaten and bruised Pakistani army was brought to its knees. 93,000 Pakistani soldiers were taken as prisoners of war. Despite the fact that India had broken Pakistan’s spine back then, Indira Gandhi chose not to reclaim Pakistan Occupied Kashmir and Gilgit Baltistan. Also, for reasons best known to her, she chose to return all the Pakistani prisoners of war. Perhaps, the assumption back then was that Pakistan had been neutered, and that it would not threaten India in the future. Obviously, that assumption proved wrong almost immediately as Pakistan adopted a strategy to “bleed India with a thousand cuts." This began with Pakistan fuelling the Khalistani movement in Punjab, and almost parallelly, the jihadi movement in Kashmir.
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In hindsight, one can argue that India squandered a perfect opportunity to solve the Pakistani nuisance for once and for all. Now, India has been presented with another historic opportunity. In the aftermath of the heinous Pahalgam terror attack, in which Pakistani terrorists racially profiled and executed Hindu men, national tempers are running high. There is a genuine desire to see Pakistan getting punished. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has the opportunity to go down in history not just as the leader who contained Pakistan, but as the one who finally broke its spine.
Since 2014, Modi has systematically dismantled the pillars on which Pakistan’s asymmetric warfare against India stood. From the abrogation of Article 370 to surgical and air strikes across the LoC, and from neutralising separatist funding to turning Pakistan into a global laughing-stock, a lot has been achieved since 2014. There are also umpteen reports of “unknown men" knocking off dreaded terrorists within Pakistan.
Yet, one must recognise that terrorism is Pakistan’s de-facto mindset. Even though the Islamic Republic is bankrupt, it has continued supporting, funding and training anti-India terror groups. In fact, India suspects that parts of Pakistan’s international bailout packages – whether they be from the IMF, the World Bank, China or even the Gulf Cooperation Council – are being used to fund terror in India.
Not surprisingly, India has now decided to asphyxiate Pakistan economically. Pakistan is an agriculture-intensive country, and 80% of its farming depends on water supplied by the Indus, Jhelum and Chenab. India has begun disrupting the flow of all these rivers. While India does not have the necessary infrastructure to completely shut the taps on Pakistan presently, in a few years, it will. Until then, even a controlled 15-20% fluctuation in normal water flow would devastate Pakistan’s Kharif and Rabi crops like rice, wheat, cotton and sugarcane. Already, the government has begun fast-tracking several hydropower projects in the Indus River Basin. So, the clock is ticking for Pakistan.
Pakistan is in no position to survive India’s economic offensive. Currently, India’s forex reserves exceed $688 billion, while Pakistan’s have barely crossed $15 billion. Today, Pakistan is caught in a vicious debt-cycle. As of December 2024, Pakistan’s external debt stood at $131.1 billion.
Over the next four years, Pakistan has to cough up over $100 billion in debt repayments. Pakistan today is the fifth-largest debtor to the IMF, which recently extended a $7 billion loan to the rogue state. Then there is China, which is Pakistan’s biggest external lender. Pakistan owes its “all-weather ally" approximately $30 billion. China’s Export-Import (Exim) Bank has been hesitant to offer additional concessional loans, pointing to concerns over repayment risks. Pakistan’s request in February 2025 to restructure $3.4 billion in debt, along with its appeal to increase the current 30-billion-yuan currency swap line by an extra 10 billion, is yet to receive a response.
India has begun taking steps to ensure that Pakistan is starved of IMF and World Bank funds, and if successful, this will ring the death-knell for the Pakistani economy. New Delhi is also ready to fight Pakistan at the FATF, where it is pushing for Pakistan to be greylisted. This will curb the flows of foreign investments, while also triggering an exodus of investors out of Pakistan.
TIME TO END PAKISTAN’S STORY FOR GOOD
Pakistan is on the brink. Its economy is in the ICU, kept alive only by last-minute bailouts from the IMF. Inflation is rampant, forex reserves are dangerously low, and its debt-to-GDP ratio is unsustainable. Internally, it is torn by civil-military tensions, Islamic radicalism, and regional separatist movements in Balochistan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and Sindh. All of these fronts stand the chance of blowing up as Pakistan diverts its forces to fight India on its eastern border. The deep state—the military-intelligence establishment that orchestrates terrorism abroad to sustain legitimacy at home—is losing its grip. But it still seeks war with India to survive.
This is where Modi’s opportunity lies. Senior BJP leaders have hinted at a strategy more ambitious than deterrence: to permanently weaken Pakistan to the point of irrelevance. Senior BJP MP Nishikant Dubey – considered close to both the PM and HM – has claimed Pakistan will be split into four entities by the end of 2025. Such a strategy does not require a full-scale war. A limited but precise military engagement, calibrated to avoid global escalation, combined with sustained economic, diplomatic and intelligence operations, could be enough to push Pakistan over the cliff.
Another potent tool in India’s arsenal is a naval blockade. Pakistan’s economy is heavily dependent on seaborne trade, especially through the Karachi and Gwadar ports. Over 95% of its imports, including essential fuel and food supplies, come via sea routes. In the event of a limited conflict, a tightly enforced naval blockade—even for a few weeks—could cripple Pakistan’s supply chains, paralyse its energy sector, and trigger widespread panic. The Indian Navy, with its significant dominance in the Arabian Sea, is well-equipped to execute such a manoeuvre swiftly and effectively.
If, as a consequence of these measures, Pakistan breaks up into several entities – nothing like it.
Critics will argue that such brinkmanship is risky. But the greater risk lies in inaction. Every time India has chosen restraint in the past, it has emboldened Pakistan’s deep state. This time, with the world more sympathetic to India’s fight against terror, and with Pakistan weaker than ever, the window for decisive action is open. History remembers those who act when the moment demands it. For Modi, this could be that moment.
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