India To Surpass Japan As 4th Largest Economy In 2025, IMF Projects
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India is projected to become the world's 4th largest economy by 2025 and 3rd largest by 2028, according to the IMF.
Moody's Ratings cuts India's GDP forecast to 6.3%
India is expected to surpass Japan as the world’s 4th largest economy in 2025 and is on course to overtake Germany as the 3rd largest economy by 2028, according to the latest projections from the IMF.
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The latest IMF projections indicate that India will continue to be the fastest-growing major economy over the next two years. According to the April 2025 edition of the IMF’s World Economic Outlook, India’s economy is projected to grow by 6.2 percent in 2025 and 6.3 percent in 2026, maintaining a strong lead over global and regional counterparts.
According to the IMF’s World Economic Outlook April 2025, India is projected to become the fourth largest economy globally in 2025, surpassing Japan with a nominal GDP of $4,187.017 billion.
The April 2025 edition of the WEO shows a downward revision in the 2025 forecast compared to the January 2025 update, due to the impact of increased global trade tensions and rising uncertainty.
In contrast, the IMF forecasts global economic growth to be significantly lower, at 2.8 percent in 2025 and 3.0 percent in 2026.
IMF Lowers Japan’s Growth Projection for 2025 Amid Tariff Conflict
The International Monetary Fund has revised its outlook for Japan, reducing its 2025 growth forecast to 0.6 percent from the 1.1 percent projected in January. This downgrade reflects the anticipated negative impact of U.S. tariffs on Japan’s economic performance.
Escalation of Trade Conflict
On April 2, Donald Trump’s new tariff escalated the trade war, causing global turmoil. However, a week later, Trump announced a 90-day suspension on new tariffs for all nations except China, on which the U.S. imposed higher retaliatory tariffs.
Moody’s Ratings Reduces India’s GDP Projection for FY26
Moody’s Ratings on Tuesday cut India’s GDP growth projection for 2025 to 6.3 percent from its earlier estimate of 6.5 percent, amid increased tensions between India and Pakistan and rising global uncertainty.
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May 06, 2025, 13:35 IST